Mastering Blackjack Basic Strategy: A Guide for NZ Players

So you want to get good at blackjack. Fair enough—it’s actually one of the few casino games where you can genuinely improve your odds instead of just hoping lady luck is on your side today. And honestly, that’s what makes it interesting. Unlike slots where you’re basically feeding money into a machine and watching colours spin, blackjack lets you make decisions that actually matter. The difference between playing like you know what you’re doing and playing blind? It’s pretty massive, really. Your decisions directly affect whether you win or lose money, and that’s exactly why learning basic strategy matters. It’s not some magical formula that’ll turn you into a millionaire overnight, but it’ll definitely help you not leak money to the casino. Let’s figure this out properly.

Reducing the Casino Advantage

Here’s the thing about casinos—they’re not in business to lose money. They’ve got a built-in advantage on pretty much every game, and blackjack is no different. But here’s where it gets interesting: blackjack has the lowest house edge of any casino game if you play it right. We’re talking about less than 1% in some cases, which is genuinely good odds compared to roulette or slots where the house edge can be 2-5% or higher.

When you play without a proper strategy, you’re basically handing the casino that advantage on a silver platter. You might hit when you should stand, double down in bad situations, or split pairs that shouldn’t be split. Each wrong move costs you money over time. That’s not being dramatic—it’s just maths. The house edge exists because of millions of tiny decisions adding up. But if you use basic strategy? You cut that advantage down massively. You’re not fighting against the odds anymore; you’re working with them as much as you possibly can. It’s the difference between playing a losing game and playing a fair game. And in gambling, fair is pretty much winning.

Here’s a quick look at how casino advantage changes based on your approach:

See the difference? Just switching to basic strategy cuts the house advantage by 75-80%. That’s massive over time.

Mathematics Behind the Game

People get weird about the maths side of blackjack. They think it’s some complicated casino thing, but honestly it’s pretty straightforward. Basically, someone sat down—probably in the 1950s—and worked out every possible hand combination and what the best move was mathematically for each one. They used computers (when they finally existed), probability, and thousands of simulations to figure out: given your hand and the dealer’s up-card, what move gives you the best expected value?

Expected value is just a fancy way of saying “on average, over time, what will happen.” So if you’re supposed to double down on 11 versus a dealer’s 5, it’s because mathematically, that’s the move that’ll win you the most money over 1,000 hands. Sometimes you’ll lose that particular hand—that happens. But over the long run, the maths don’t lie. The beautiful part? You don’t need to understand the maths to use it. Someone already did all the work. You just follow the chart.

The reason basic strategy works is because blackjack is what they call a “dependent probability” game. The cards that come out affect what’s left in the deck, and some dealer positions are objectively better or worse for you depending on what they’re showing. When the dealer shows a 6, for example, they’ve got a really high chance of busting—way higher than when they show an Ace. So your strategy changes completely. That’s not guessing; that’s working with the actual probabilities.

Here’s what the maths actually looks like in practice:

When the dealer shows 4, 5, or 6, they’re basically on life support. They’ve got less than a 60% chance of ending up with 17+. That changes what you should do.

Avoiding Common Player Myths

Right, so this is where I get a bit annoyed because there’s so much rubbish advice floating around about blackjack. People who’ve never seriously studied the game will tell you things that are just plain wrong, and then other people repeat it, and suddenly everyone’s playing badly because of some myth they heard down the pub.

Let me break down the biggest myths and why they’re wrong:

• “Never take a card when you’ve got 12-16 because you might bust” – This is actually wrong in a bunch of situations. Yeah, you might bust, but if the dealer’s showing a 7, they’re probably going to have 17 or higher, so you have to hit. It’s the risk you take.
• “Always stand on 17” – Also wrong. Depends entirely on whether it’s a soft 17 (with an Ace) and what the dealer’s showing. Soft 17 you actually hit most of the time.
• “Never double down on anything except 11” – Nope. You’ll miss tons of profitable situations with soft hands and hard 10 and 9.
• “Insurance is always bad” – Insurance is almost always bad, but saying “always” is slightly inaccurate. Against a dealer Ace, insurance looks tempting but the odds don’t work.

Then there’s the “lucky guess” approach where someone says, “I just feel like I should hit,” and they do, and it works out, so they assume they’re good at the game. That’s not strategy; that’s randomness. If you make bad decisions sometimes work out sometimes—well, that just means you got lucky. Do it 10,000 times and the house edge will show up in the results. The whole point of basic strategy is not to rely on feelings or hunches. You play the maths, and the maths wins eventually.

Reading the Decision Matrix

Alright, so strategy charts look intimidating at first. You see this massive grid with numbers across the top and down the sides, and you think, “There’s no way I’m memorising that.” But honestly? Once you understand how to read it, it’s dead simple. It takes about thirty seconds to find your answer.

Here’s how it works. Down the left side, you’ve got your hand total—that’s what you’re holding. Across the top, you’ve got the dealer’s up-card—the one card they’re showing face-up. You find your hand on the left, trace across, find the dealer’s card on top, trace down, and boom—where they meet tells you what to do. H means hit, S means stand, D means double down, and P means split. Sometimes you’ll see variations like “H/S” which means hit if the dealer’s showing certain cards and stand against others. That’s just a condensed version so the chart doesn’t take up the whole wall.

The thing about these charts is they’re colour-coded usually, which helps massively. Green might be “always do this,” yellow might be “depends on the situation,” that sort of thing. Some charts separate soft hands from hard hands completely, which makes sense because the strategy’s completely different when you’ve got an Ace. Don’t just look at a chart once and expect to know it. Print one out. Take it to the table (seriously, most casinos allow it). Look at it again and again until your brain stops needing the visual. That’s how it sticks.

Here’s the basic chart key system you’ll see:

Hard vs Soft Hands

This is genuinely important and people mess it up constantly. A “hard” hand is one without an Ace, or one where the Ace has to count as 1 instead of 11 (because counting it as 11 would bust you). So 10-7 is hard 17. 10-8 is hard 18. Simple. A “soft” hand is one where you’ve got an Ace counting as 11. So Ace-6 is soft 17 (you could call it 7 or 17). Ace-8 is soft 19 (could be 9 or 19).

Why does this matter? Because the strategy is completely different. With a hard hand, you’re limited—you can’t take too many cards or you’ll bust. But with a soft hand, you can’t lose on the next card because that Ace just becomes a 1. So you play way more aggressively with soft hands. You’ll hit soft 17 when you’d stand on hard 17. You’ll double down on soft 13 against certain dealer cards. The chart literally has two separate sections, and you absolutely need to know which one you’re in. Don’t mix them up or you’ll make the opposite move and leak money.

Quick comparison between the two:

Dealer Up-Card Importance

This is the other critical piece. What the dealer’s showing completely changes what you do. It’s not just about your hand; it’s about the relative strength of your hand versus theirs. If the dealer’s showing a 2-6, they’re in what’s called the “stiff” range. That means they’ve got a decent chance of busting if they take another card. So your strategy becomes: don’t bust yourself. Stand more. Don’t hit weak hands. Make the dealer try to improve and risk going over.

But if the dealer’s showing 7 through Ace, they’re probably building a strong hand. You know they’ve got at least 7, and face cards are common, so they might have 17, 18, 19, 20, or 21 coming. So your strategy switches completely. Now you need to be aggressive. You hit weaker hands because standing isn’t going to win anyway. You double down more often because you need to build a bigger hand to compete. The dealer’s card is literally telling you whether they’re in trouble or you’re in trouble, and you adjust accordingly.

Your strategic priorities based on dealer’s card:

1. Dealer shows 2-3 – They’re weak but not terrible. Stand more. Don’t hit hands over 12. They improve more than they bust.
2. Dealer shows 4-6 – This is their death zone. They’re probably going to bust. You play super defensive. Don’t hit hard 12-16. Let them take cards. Double down aggressively.
3. Dealer shows 7 – Borderline. They’ve probably got 17. You need to be somewhat aggressive. Hit your weaker hands.
4. Dealer shows 8-9 – They’re strong. They’ve got 18-19 likely. You hit almost everything. Double only on the best spots.
5. Dealer shows 10 – They might have 20. You’re in trouble. Hit aggressively. Be desperate.
6. Dealer shows Ace – Could be 21. You’re in the worst spot possible. Play very aggressively or surrender bad hands.

When to Hit or Stand

Right, so hard hands are where most people start because they seem straightforward. And they kind of are, except that’s when people mess up. The general rule that gets taught is “stand on 17 or higher, hit on 16 or lower,” but that’s only partially true, and it’ll cost you money if you follow it blindly.

First up: 4-8 total. Just hit. You literally can’t bust, so you hit until you get to something better. That’s not a decision; it’s automatic. 9 and 10 and 11—these are great hands for doubling down, which we’ll get to, but if you’re not doubling (some situations you won’t), you hit 9 and 10, always. 11 you should almost always be doubling. Now here’s where people get confused: 12-16, your “stiff” hands. These are the annoying ones because you can bust but you also can’t stand on them usually. You hit when the dealer shows 7-Ace because they’re likely to have 17 or better. You stand when the dealer shows 2-6 because they’re likely to bust, so you want them to take cards while you sit tight.

17 or higher—stand. Seriously. Done. Don’t even think about it. You’ve got a decent hand, and the odds of improving without busting are terrible. Stand and make the dealer work.

Your hit/stand decision tree for hard hands:

But here’s the catch: sometimes the chart says “surrender” on certain hands. That’s only in casinos that offer it (not all do), and it means you give up half your bet to not play the hand. Sounds stupid until you realise you’re in a situation so bad that losing half the bet is better than probably losing the whole thing. You surrender hard 15 and 16 against the dealer’s 9 and 10 sometimes. It’s mathematically correct even though it feels wrong.

Doubling Down Opportunities

Doubling down is one of the moves that genuinely separates good players from people just mucking around. You double your bet and get exactly one more card. That’s it. So timing is everything.

Hard 11 is the obvious one. If the dealer’s showing anything except an Ace, you double. You’ve got 11, you want one more card, and the chance of getting to 21 or high teens is massive. It’s a free edge basically. Hard 10 is similar—you double against dealer 2-9. Hard 9, you double against dealer 3-6. These are the “aggressive” doubles where you’re just trying to get a better total.

Then you’ve got the “defensive” doubles with soft hands, which we’ll cover more in the next section, but the idea is the same: you’re doubling because the expected value is positive. Never double on a total of 12 or higher with a hard hand (so like 10-2 or 9-3). You’re not hitting them, so why would you double? Never double against dealer Ace—you’re in a bad spot and doubling makes it worse. And never double when you’ve got a total higher than what you’re likely to improve to. Like, you’ve got hard 17? You double down? Are you mental? You’re hoping to get 27?

The key thing is: doubling is not about always doubling. It’s about doubling when the maths works. And the chart tells you exactly when that is.

Hard hand doubling strategy:

Handling the Worst Hands

Sometimes you’re just dealt garbage. Like, genuinely terrible cards. Hard 5, 6, 7—these hands are basically automatic hits because you can improve without going anywhere near bust. You just keep hitting until you either improve or bust. There’s no strategy here; you just hit and hope.

Where it gets interesting is hard 12, the worst “decision” hand. You can’t stand on it basically ever, but you can bust. So you’re hitting, but you’re looking at what the dealer’s showing. Dealer 2-3 or 7+? Hit. Dealer 4-6? Stand (they’re likely to bust). This is where people get it wrong. They think “12 is bad, I should hit every time,” but actually, standing against a dealer stiff card can win. The dealer busts more than they improve. Hard 13-16 are all variations of the same idea: hit against dealer strength, stand against dealer weakness.

The absolutely worst scenario is when you’ve got hard 15 or 16 and the dealer’s showing 9, 10, or Ace. You’re losing that hand almost no matter what. Hit and pray for a lucky card, or surrender if your casino allows it. Those are your only shots.

What to do with your worst starting hands:

1. 5, 6, 7, 8 – Keep hitting. You literally cannot bust. Hit until you reach 12 or higher, then reassess.
2. Hard 12 – This is your breakpoint hand. Dealer showing 4-6? You stand and let them bust. Dealer showing 2, 3, 7-A? You hit because they’re either not busting or you need to improve.
3. Hard 13-16 – The “stiff” hands nobody wants. Same logic as 12—stand against dealer weakness (4-6), hit against dealer strength (7-A).
4. Hard 17 – You’re standing here. Period. Even though you feel like you should hit, the odds say stand.

Strategy for Soft Hands

The Power of Aces

An Ace in your hand changes everything. Suddenly you’re not worried about busting on the next card because that Ace can just become a 1. It’s like having a safety net. Soft hands let you play aggressive because you’ve got so much room to improve without the risk of immediate death.

Soft 13-15 (Ace-2 through Ace-4) are hands where you hit pretty much always. The dealer showing 6 or lower? You might double. But otherwise you’re just taking cards. Soft 16-17 (Ace-5 through Ace-6) you’re doubling against dealer weakness (4-6) and hitting otherwise. Soft 18 (Ace-7) is interesting because it’s a decent hand, but you still double against dealer weakness. Soft 19 and 20, you stand. Don’t be greedy. Soft 21 (Ace-Ace or Ace-10)—you stand obviously, that’s 21.

The thing people don’t get is why you double on soft hands when they seem decent already. The answer is expected value. Like, soft 17 versus dealer 4 might seem like okay-ish, so why double? Because doubling gives you a 50% chance of getting to 18, 19, or 20 with one more card, and it costs you little in the losing scenario. The maths works out. You’re not doubling because you’re desperate; you’re doubling because it wins more money.

The power of having an Ace in your hand:

Doubling Soft Totals

Soft doubling is one of the most +EV moves in blackjack when you do it right, and one of the most -EV when you do it wrong. So pay attention.

Soft 13-18, you double down when the dealer’s showing 4, 5, or 6. Those are the dealer’s worst cards. The dealer probably busts, so you want to double up. It’s that simple. Against 3, you might double on soft 16-18 depending on the specific hand. Against 2, it’s less good because the dealer doesn’t bust as often. Against 7-Ace, forget it. You’re not doubling. The dealer’s probably making a strong hand anyway.

The reason soft doubling crushes is because you’re basically betting that the dealer busts. When they do, you’ve got double the winnings. When they don’t, you’ve already got a decent hand. It’s asymmetrically in your favour if you do it only when it counts.

Soft hand doubling breakdown:

Hitting Soft 17 Rules

Soft 17 is the hand that drives people mental. You’ve got Ace-6, which is either 7 or 17, and every instinct tells you to stand because 17 sounds strong. But actually, you hit soft 17 against pretty much everything except dealer 2. That includes hitting against dealer 3 and 4 and 5 and 6 and 7.

Why? Because you’ve got so much upside. You hit, and on average you’re getting to 18, 19, or 20 often enough that the expected value is positive. You’re not gonna bust because if you get a 10, you’ve got 17 still (the Ace becomes 1). You get a 9, you’ve got 16 or 26 (26 doesn’t exist, so 16). You get a low card, you’ve got 18-24 pretty easily. The only card that’s genuinely bad is maybe 8 or 9, but even then you’re either holding or hitting again.

And here’s the thing—even against dealer strength (7-Ace), you hit soft 17. It seems crazy, but your 7 or 17 is losing to almost everything anyway. You need to improve. Hitting gives you the chance to get to 18 or higher. Standing doesn’t. So you hit.

Breaking down soft 17:

• vs Dealer 2: Stand (dealer is weak, you hold)
• vs Dealer 3-6: HIT (doubling is better actually, but you can hit if you didn’t double)
• vs Dealer 7-9: HIT (you need to improve, dealer has 17+)
• vs Dealer 10: HIT (you’re losing anyway, need 18+)
• vs Dealer Ace: HIT (desperate move, need improvement)

This one move—hitting soft 17 instead of standing—saves you so much money over time because you’re constantly improving weak hands into winning ones. Don’t fight your instincts here. Follow the chart.

Pairs and Splitting Rules (Continuation)

So let me give you the full breakdown starting over from this section, with all the proper formatting, tables, and lists you need.

Always Split Aces and Eights

Right, so pairs are where a lot of people at the table mess up completely. Some never split anything ever, others split everything under the sun just because they feel lucky. But the actual rule is dead simple and honestly pretty easy to remember: always split Aces and Eights. Always. No matter what the dealer’s showing. That’s it. No exceptions, no thinking about it, no “but what if…” You split those two pairs every single time you get them.

Why? Because both of these pairs are individually rubbish hands. An Ace-Ace without splitting is just 2 or 12, both terrible. An 8-8 is 16, which is the worst hard hand you can have—you can’t stand on it and you’re probably going to bust if you hit. But when you split them, suddenly each hand gets a separate chance to become something good. You’re not trying to get 22 or 16 anymore; you’re trying to get 21 or 17 twice. The maths works out massively in your favour.

With Aces, you’re hoping for face cards or 10s to make 21. With Eights, you’re getting a fresh chance at each hand. You might hit a face card and get 18. You might get another 8 and split again (if your casino allows resplitting). The point is, you’re turning one terrible situation into two okay situations, and that’s always better maths. Think about it logically—if you’ve got a pair of Eights and the dealer’s showing a 3, standing on 16 is going to lose you money over 1,000 hands. But splitting and getting two separate chances? That wins more money. The numbers don’t lie.

Here’s why these two hands are special:

So that’s the golden rule—every single time you get Aces or Eights, you split. Period. Don’t overthink it. The chart will tell you to split them against dealer 2 through Ace, and you do it. I’ve seen people hesitate on splitting Aces because they’re worried, but honestly that hesitation costs them money. You’re following the maths, not your gut.

Pairs to Never Split

Now on the flip side, there’s pairs you should literally never split. Ever. These are the pairs where you’re already sitting on something decent, and splitting them is just going to make things worse. And this is where I see smart people making dumb decisions because they’re trying to be clever.

Tens (including face cards which are also worth 10) are the obvious one. You’ve got 20. That’s a fantastic hand. You stand on 20 every single time. Splitting 10-10 means you’re throwing away 20 to chase two hands that might not even get there. That’s mental. Why would you do that? I’ve genuinely seen people split Tens because they “wanted to double their winnings” or some rubbish. News flash: you’re more likely to end up with two bad hands than two good ones. Same logic applies to 9s in most situations, though the chart does have some nuance there depending on the dealer’s card. But generally, if you’ve got 18, you’re pretty happy with that.

Then there’s 5s. Never split 5s. You’ve got 10, which is one of the best doubling hands in the game. If you split them, you’ve got two hands with just 5 each, which is garbage. You hit them individually and they’re weak. You double that 10 and you’ve got a much better expected value. So you’re going to double the 10, not split the 5s. This is a common one people get wrong because they think “oh, 5-5, I should split” but no, that’s losing money.

4s are similar logic—you’ve got 8, which isn’t great, but splitting them into two 4s doesn’t help you either. You’d rather hit that 8 or double it against dealer weakness. The expected value of playing it as 8 beats the expected value of two separate 4s. It’s not even close.

Pairs you should basically never split:

• 10s (or 20 total) – You’ve got 20, one of the best hands in blackjack. Standing on 20 is always correct. Splitting throws that away like you don’t want money.
• 5s (or 10 total) – This is your best doubling hand. If the rules let you double, you do it. If not, you hit. Never split 5s.
• 4s (or 8 total) – Same-ish idea. Hit or double this hand. Splitting into two 4s leaves you with nothing decent.

Why these pairs are untouchable:

The thing is, the casino makes money because people make emotional decisions. You sit down with a pair of 10s, you see a pair, your brain says “I should split,” and you do it without thinking. And then you lose both hands and wonder what happened. Don’t be that person. Keep it simple: Tens stay together, 5s stay together, 4s stay together.

Defensive Splitting Tactics

Then you’ve got the middle ground, the pairs where it depends entirely on what the dealer’s showing. These are the pairs where you’re playing defence. You’re not trying to hit a home run; you’re trying to minimize damage or take advantage of a dealer in trouble. This is where the chart actually gets interesting because you’re reading the dealer’s situation and adjusting.

2s and 3s are the low pair plays. You split them, but only when the dealer’s in a stiff position (2-7). Why? Because you want to separate these weak hands and give each one a chance to improve without the other dragging it down. If the dealer’s showing a strong card (8-Ace), you just hit your 4 or 6 and hope for improvement without the risk of splitting. The logic is: when the dealer’s weak, you want two chances to beat them. When the dealer’s strong, you want one focused hand trying to improve.

6s are interesting because a 12 is already the worst decision hand. By splitting, you’re creating two hands with 6 each, and each one can improve independently. You split 6s against dealer 2-7. Against dealer 8-Ace, you hit because the dealer’s already strong and you need one solid hand, not two weak ones fighting an uphill battle. Think about it: the dealer’s probably going to make 17 or 18. You’re better off hitting that 12 once and hoping for a 6-9 range card than splitting into two hands that both need a miracle.

7s and 9s are the trickier ones because they’re actually decent totals. 14 and 18 respectively. But against certain dealer cards, splitting makes mathematical sense. You split 7s against dealer 2-7 (they might bust, and you want two chances). You stand on 7-7 against dealer 8+ because that 14 isn’t going anywhere and splitting just creates two 7s that are probably losing. You split 9s against dealer 2-9, but not against 10 or Ace (because 18 is decent enough against those strong cards). The dealer showing a 10? You keep that 18 and stand. They’ve probably got 20, so your 18 is losing either way, but at least you don’t lose double.

Defensive pair splitting strategy:

The idea behind these is pretty straightforward: when the dealer’s weak (2-6), you split more aggressively because you want two chances to beat them or make them bust. When the dealer’s strong (10-Ace), you’re more conservative. When the dealer’s borderline (7-9), you look at each pair individually and decide based on the chart. This isn’t complicated once you see the pattern—it’s just adapting to what the dealer’s showing.

One thing people mess up here is they try to memorise every single decision instead of understanding the logic. The logic is: dealer weak = split more. Dealer strong = stand or hit. That’s it. Once you get that, the rest is just filling in the details.

The Truth About Insurance

Alright, so this is where the casino tries to be clever. The dealer deals, they show an Ace, and suddenly they’re asking you “Want insurance?” It sounds protective, right? Like you’re protecting yourself against the dealer having blackjack. And that’s exactly why it’s a trap—it’s designed to look smart even though it’s actually a terrible bet. I’m going to be blunt here because this move costs people a lot of money.

Here’s how it works. You put up half your original bet as insurance. If the dealer’s got blackjack (a face card in the hole), insurance pays 2-to-1. So you lose your original bet but win double your insurance bet, breaking even. If the dealer doesn’t have blackjack, you lose the insurance bet and keep going with the original hand. Sounds like a safety net, yeah? That’s the whole idea—the casino wants you to feel like you’re being smart and protecting yourself.

Except the maths don’t work. With roughly one-third of the remaining cards being 10-value cards, the probability of the dealer having blackjack is about 33%. But the payout is only 2-to-1, which mathematically assumes a 50% probability. You’re being paid as if blackjack shows up half the time when it really shows up about a third of the time. Over the long run, insurance loses money. Every single time. It’s a -EV bet, and you should avoid it religiously. I’m not being dramatic—the house edge on insurance is about 5.4%. That’s worse than slots in most casinos. You’re literally better off playing the slots than taking insurance.

The only—and I mean only—time insurance might make some tiny bit of sense is if you’re counting cards and you know the deck is really heavily loaded with 10s. But that’s card counting territory, which is illegal in some places and frowned upon everywhere. For basic strategy players, insurance is just a donation to the casino. Don’t do it.

Insurance breakdown:

Every time you’re tempted to take insurance, remember: you’re taking a 5.4% house edge bet when you could be playing with a 0.4% house edge. That’s a 5% difference per hand. Over a hundred hands, that adds up massively. Just say no.

When to Surrender Hands

Not all casinos offer surrender, and honestly a lot of NZ casinos don’t either. But if yours does, you need to know when it’s actually worth it. Surrender means you fold your hand, lose half your bet, and don’t play the rest of it out. Sounds defeatist, but sometimes losing half is better than probably losing all of it. This is actually a mathematically sound move when you’re in a hopeless situation.

You surrender hard 15 and 16 against the dealer’s 9 and 10. Why? Because those hands are almost certain losses. If you’ve got hard 15 and the dealer’s showing a 10, you’re looking at the dealer probably having 20. Your hand is losing. If you hit, you’ve got a high chance of busting (about 58%). If you stand, the dealer’s probably better. Surrendering loses you half, but mathematically that’s still better than the expected loss of playing it out. It’s not giving up; it’s being strategic.

Hard 15 versus dealer Ace is a similar story. The dealer’s probably got 21. You surrender and lose half instead of losing all of it. The expected value of surrendering is better than the expected value of hitting or standing. Sometimes the best move is knowing when to quit.

Some charts also show surrender on soft 15 and 17 versus dealer 10, but this is less clear-cut depending on the specific rules. The basic ones you need to know are hard 15-16 versus 9-10 and hard 15 versus Ace. These are the situations where you’re genuinely in a spot so bad that giving up half is the smart play.

When surrender makes sense (if available):

• Hard 15 vs dealer 9 – Your hand is 40%+ likely to lose. Surrender cuts losses in half.
• Hard 15 vs dealer 10 – Your hand is 50%+ likely to lose. Surrender is mathematically correct.
• Hard 16 vs dealer 9-10 – Same logic. These are losing situations no matter what you do.
• Hard 15 vs dealer Ace – Dealer probably has 21. Surrender saves you half the bet instead of losing all.

Surrender is basically the “I’m already losing this, let me minimize damage” move. It feels wrong because you’re giving up, but it’s actually mathematically correct in those situations. And honestly, your bankroll will thank you for being disciplined about it.

Smart Bankroll Management

Right, so here’s the thing—knowing basic strategy is only half the battle. The other half is not being an idiot with your money. And yeah, I’m including myself here. Everyone who gambles has had moments where they’ve made terrible decisions with money because they were chasing losses or got overconfident. It happens. The difference is whether you learn from it.

Bankroll management is boring. It’s not exciting. You don’t get stories from it. Nobody goes home and tells their mates “I managed my bankroll really well and played disciplined blackjack.” But it’s the thing that keeps you from losing everything in one night. It’s the thing that keeps you coming back to play instead of being broke for six months. Here’s the basic principle: bring an amount of money that you can afford to lose entirely. Not money you need for rent, not holiday funds you’ve saved all year, not your kids’ school fees. Money that if it all disappeared, you’d be annoyed but you’d be fine. That’s step one.

Then, you set a loss limit. Like, if you bring $200, maybe you stop playing when you’ve lost $100. You’re walking away up $100, or you’ve cut your losses in half. Either way, you’re being disciplined. Don’t think “oh I’ll just keep playing to get even.” That’s how people turn a $100 loss into a $500 loss into a $2000 loss. Chasing is the enemy. It’s the casino’s best weapon. They love when you’re chasing because desperate people make bad decisions.

Also, bet sizing matters massively. If you’re betting too much per hand, normal variance is going to destroy you. If you’re betting too little, you’re not taking advantage of your edge when you have one. A good rule of thumb is betting 1-2% of your bankroll per hand. So if you’ve got $200, that’s $2-4 per hand. Boring? Yes. But sustainable? Absolutely. And sustainability is everything because you only make money over time.

Bankroll management checklist:

1. Bring only money you can afford to lose completely – This is the foundation. Everything else is built on this.
2. Set a loss limit before you sit down – Decide beforehand how much you’re willing to lose. When you hit that, you walk away. No exceptions.
3. Bet 1-2% of your bankroll per hand – If you’ve got $200, bet $2-4. This keeps normal variance from wrecking you.
4. Don’t chase losses – This is the hardest rule to follow but maybe the most important. Losing hands happen. Losing streaks happen. You don’t make it worse by throwing extra money at it.
5. Know when to leave – If you’re up, great. Take some winnings off the table. If you’re losing, stick to your loss limit and walk away.
6. Never borrow to gamble – If you don’t have it, you don’t bet it. This seems obvious but you’d be surprised.

Perfect bankroll sizing looks like this:

These aren’t rules set in stone, but they’re reasonable. If you go above 2% per hand, you’re risking too much variance. If you go below 1%, you’re basically wasting your time because winnings are tiny.

Memorising the Charts

So here’s the reality of learning basic strategy—you can’t just read about it once and expect to know it perfectly when you’re sitting at a table with money on the line and a dealer looking at you waiting for a decision. Your brain doesn’t work that way. You need to actually memorise it, and yeah, that takes time and effort. But it’s not as bad as you think.

The good news? It’s not as hard as it sounds. You don’t need to memorise 60 different decisions. You need to memorise the patterns. Hard hands—simpler pattern, fewer decisions. Soft hands—more aggressive pattern. Pairs—specific rules for each pair. Break it down into chunks instead of trying to memorise the whole chart at once. Seriously, chunk learning is way more effective than trying to absorb everything.

Start with hard hands because they’re the most straightforward. Learn the basic pattern: hit 4-11, hit 12 against 7-Ace and stand against 2-6, stand on 13+. That’s like 80% of hard hand decisions right there. Then learn the exceptions like hard 10-11 doubling. Then move to soft hands and their more aggressive approach. Then pairs. You’re building it up step by step.

Realistically, if you practice for 15 minutes a day for two weeks, you’ll have the major decisions down. If you keep going for a month, you’ll have most of the chart in your head. If you want to be perfect, three months of casual review and you’re there. And honestly, even after a month you’re probably good enough to sit at a real table.

Steps to memorise basic strategy:

• Week 1 – Learn hard hands pattern. Drill the hit/stand decisions. Get comfortable with the 2-6 vs 7-Ace split. This is your foundation.
• Week 2 – Add hard hand doubles (11, 10, 9). Practice transitioning between hitting and doubling decisions. Understand why you double 11 but not 12.
• Week 3 – Learn soft hands and their aggressive nature. Practice hitting soft 17, doubling soft 13-18. Get comfortable that soft hands are different.
• Week 4 – Add pair splitting rules. Know the golden rule (always split Aces and Eights) and the defensive splits. Finish strong.
• Ongoing – Random drills. Someone calls out a hand and dealer card, you say the decision instantly. This keeps it fresh.

Using Strategy Cards

Here’s the legal hack—most casinos actually let you bring a basic strategy card to the table. Seriously. You can literally have a laminated card sitting in front of you with the chart on it. It’s not cheating, it’s not illegal (in most places), and it’s definitely not frowned upon by the casino itself. They’d rather have you playing basic strategy than losing even more by playing badly.

So even if you’re not fully memorised, you can bring a card. Look down, find your hand and dealer card, make the decision. It’ll slow you down a bit, but you’re getting the decision right. And honestly, the act of using the card helps you memorise it faster because you’re actively looking it up each time. Your brain learns through doing, not just reading.

Some casinos might have house rules about this—like they want you to know it without the card, or they don’t allow charts in high-stakes games. But for casual play at most NZ casinos? You’re fine. Check before you go, but generally it’s allowed. Call ahead if you’re unsure. Most casinos will tell you straight up.

The card should have:

• Hard hand chart (separate section with clear layout)
• Soft hand chart (separate section, clearly marked different from hard hands)
• Pair splitting chart (separate section with all pair rules)
• Insurance rule (never take it, written clearly)
• Surrender rule (if available at your casino)

Print it out, get it laminated, keep it in your wallet. It’s like $5 and it might save you hundreds in bad decisions. That’s good ROI.

Online Practice Tools

If you want to actually get good before hitting a real casino, there’s heaps of free online tools that let you practice. You can find basic strategy trainers where you get dealt a hand and a dealer card, you make a decision, and it tells you if you’re right or wrong. Some of them time you, so you’re practicing speed too. This is genuinely useful because you’re getting instant feedback and you can redo hands you get wrong.

There’s also free blackjack games online where you can play with fake money and practice using the actual strategy without any pressure. You’re not risking real money, you’re just drilling the decisions over and over. No stress, no pressure, just repetition. And repetition is how you learn.

The advantage of practicing online first is massive. You make mistakes, you learn, no harm done. Then when you sit at a real table, you’re already confident in your decisions. You’re not sitting there going “Wait, is it hit or stand?” You just know. You know from muscle memory.

Online practice tools worth checking out:

• Basic strategy trainers – Drill mode where you get a hand and dealer card, make a decision, get instant feedback on correctness. Boring but effective.
• Free blackjack simulators – Actually play hands with fake money, learn the flow of the game, practice bankroll management. More engaging than flashcards.
• Flashcard apps – Because sometimes the old-school approach (drilling one decision at a time) is actually the fastest for pure memorisation.
• YouTube channels – There’s tons of blackjack education channels that walk through strategy decisions. Watching someone explain why you hit hard 12 versus dealer 7 but stand versus dealer 2 reinforces the logic.

The time you spend practicing now—even just 20 minutes a day for a few weeks—saves you money when you’re actually playing. Like, materially saves you money. Every correct decision you make instead of a wrong one is money in your pocket over the long run. So yeah, practice before you play for real. It’s not negotiable if you want to actually be good.